War in Ukraine: Update from Kyiv

101: ANALYSIS: Lisa Gaufman on Putin’s incoherent ideology, and mobilization as a tipping point for Putin’s legitimacy

Lisa Gaufman, Assistant Professor of Russian Discourse and Politics at the University of Groningen, discusses Putin's incoherent ideology and the impact of the mobilization on Putin's perceived legitimacy in Russia and future trajectory. 
'There is no coherent ideology... Putin is trying to dress up his land grab into some kind of ideological padding that would resonate with some people who might still support him'
'Observing a lot of the blunders and the atrocities that the Russian army has inflicted on the Ukrainian population has tarnished Russia, even among countries that previously might have supported Putin' 
'By declaring mobilization Putin pretty much destroyed the perception of stability that his legitimacy is built upon...' 
Lisa Graufman Between a Liberal and a Hard Place - Russia and Global Ideological Competition 
Lisa Graufman Security Threats and Public Perception - Digital Russia and the Ukraine Crisis 
Follow Lisa Gaufman on twitter: @lisas_research
For episode updates follow on twitter: @jessicagenauer

100. ANALYSIS: Temur Umarov on Kazakhstan, relations with Russia and the war in Ukraine

Temur Umarov, Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses Kazakhstan, its relations with Russia, and the war in Ukraine - why has Tokayev refused to support Russia's full-scale invasion? How has Russia's mobilization impacted Kazakhstan? How has the war impacted other Central Asian states? 
'What Kazakhstan is doing right now [not supporting the war] is pretty risky. We have already seen that Russia is not happy with that... but Kazakhstan understands that it doesn't really have other options... because staying so closely connected to Russia means that together with Russia you would go to this isolation... it's a one-way ticket... so for Kazakhstan it's even more risky to continue being Russia's close ally' 
'Tokayev is very popular in the society right now... after his tough and clear stance on the war in Ukraine... Inside Kazakhstan this [war] leads to even more will to drift away from Russia' 
Temur Umarov: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 
Follow Temur on twitter: @TUmarov
For episode updates follow on twitter: @jessicagenauer
 

99. ANALYSIS: Janis Kluge on the impact of sanctions on Russian economy, EU decoupling from Russian energy imports, Germany and the end of Nord Stream

Janis Kluge, Senior Researcher at the SWP German Institute for International and Security Affairs, evaluates the impact of sanctions on Russia's economy, EU countries' decoupling from Russian energy imports, and the significance of recent 'leaks' in the Nord Stream pipelines. 
"The effect of sanctions is [often] slower than expected... but that does not mean that it is more benign."
Follow Janis on twitter: @jakluge
For episode updates follow on twitter: @jessicagenauer

98. ANALYSIS: Ivan Klyszcz on Russia’s mobilization and the North Caucasus - Dagestan, Chechnya, protests and mobilization

Ivan Klyszcz, research fellow at the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute and Doctoral Candidate at the University of Tartu, disucsses Putin's mobilization and the North Caucasus - Dagestan, Chechnya, protests and the possible impacts of mobilization. 
'the mobilization puts tremendous pressure on the entire Putin system that has been ruling Russia for two decades now, because this system is premised on demobilizing people, making them apolitical and disengaged from the way the country is ruled...' 
'my fear is that mobilization in the North Caucasus will create a new cycle of violence in the region' 
Ivan Klysczc on Chechnya's Paradiplomacy 2000-2020: The Emergence and Evolution of External Relations of a Reincorporated Territory 
Ivan Klysczc on Lack of protest in the North Caucasus in 2021 
Follow Ivan on twitter: @IvanUlisesKK
For episode updates follow on twitter: @jessicagenauer

97. ANALYSIS: Marnie Howlett on Ukranian public opinion research - perspectives on territory, sovereignty and the war with Russia

Marnie Howlett, Lecturer in Politics at the University of Oxford, discusses findings from her team's latest public opinion survey research in Ukraine - conductin surveys during a full-scale war, sentiment in Ukraine on territory, sovereignty, Ukrainians categorical opposition to conceding territory or accepting Russian-backed control and implications of this for the war going forward. 
The survey data showed that "Ukrainians are categorically opposed... [to cede territory or accept a Russian-backed government].. they will fight... they are not willing to back down... at any cost they will defend their land".
Janina Dill, Carl Muller-Crepon and Marnie Howlett in The Conversation: "Ukrainians are not willing to give up territory or sovereignty – new survey."
Ilko Kulcheriv Democracy Initiatives Foundation report comparing the survey data from February 2022 to May 2022: How the War Changed the Way Ukrainians Think About Friends, Enemies, and the Country's Strategic Goals 
Follow Marnie on twitter: @marnie_howlett
For episode updates follow on twitter: @jessicagenauer 

96. ANALYSIS: Oleksandr Seredyuk on Russian colonialism, the war in Ukraine, and Russian disunity as Ukraine retakes captured territory

Oleksandr Seredyuk, graduate student at Ca'Foscari University of Venice and researcher with the Global Leaders in Unity and Evolvement think tank, discusses growing up in Ukraine, Russian colonialism, the war in Ukraine, and Russian disunity as Ukraine gains on the battelfield.
Global Leaders in Unity and Evolvement: glueinstitute.org
Follow the GLUE institute on twitter: @gloleaders
Follow Oleksandr on twitter: @OSeredyuk
For episode updates follow on twitter: @jessicagenauer

95. ANALYSIS: Maxim Alyukov and Andrei Semenov on Russian propaganda and the war in Ukraine - setbacks, changes & representations of the war in Russian state media versus social media

Maxim Alyukov, Postdoctoral Fellow at the King's College London Russia Institute, and Andrei Semenov, Senior Researcher at the Center for Comparative Historical and Political Studies, discuss their recent report on Russian propaganda setbacks and the war in Ukraine, including a large-scale analysis of the differences between how Russian state media and Russian social media discuss the war in Ukraine.   
Report by Maxim Alyukov, Maria Kunilovskaya and Andrei Semenov: Propaganda Setbacks and Appropriation of Anti-War Language: "Special Military Operation" in Russian Mass Media and Social Networks (February - July 2022)
Maxim Alyukov on Propaganda, Authoritarianism and Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
Maxim Alyukov on Making Sense of the News in an Authoritarian Regime: Russian Television Viewers Reception of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict 
Follow Maxim on twitter: @maxalyukov
Follow Andrei on twitter: @semenaff
For episode updates follow on twitter: @jessicagenauer

94. KYIV UPDATE: Oleksandr Kraiev with a view of the counteroffensive from Ukraine - restoring Ukraine’s 1991 borders, Russia’s logistical challenges, and comparing Ukrainian and Russian combat styles

Oleksander Kraiev, Director of the North America Program at the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council, comments on the counteroffensive with a view from Ukraine: restoring Ukraine's 1991 territorial borders, why taking back Crimea is increasingly realistic, Russia's logistical challenges, how Russian media channels are discussing the counteroffensive, and how Ukraine's more modern combat style compares to Russia's soviet-style approach. 
"If previously we were hoping for the plan minimum - to restore the borders as of 24 February - now we are striving for the liberation of the whole Ukrainian territories - and restoration of the borders as of 1991"
"The Russian offensive in February / March was more of a Soviet-style offensive... whereas the Ukrainian counterattack is more of a NATO-style offensive... Russia was not prepared for this style of combat"
Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council 
Follow Oleksandr on twitter: @OKraiev
For episode updates follow on twitter: @jessicagenauer
 

93. ANALYSIS: Oxana Shevel on Ukraine’s pluralism, national identity, impact of Russian invasion and Ukraine’s future

Oxana Shevel, Associate Professor of Political Science at Tufts University, discusses Ukrainian national identity, diversity, pluralism, changes since 2014 and since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022 and optimism for Ukraine's future. 
Russia's annexation of Crimea and incursions into Urkaine in 2014 caused "the part of the country that was the most pro-Russian to get cut off from voting in Ukraine's elections" and at the same time "this open Russian aggression turned more people away from Russia in their attitudes"  from "trying to keep Ukraine in Russia's sphere of influence - Putin has achieved exactly the opposite"
Oxana Shevel on Migration, Refugee Policy and State Building in Postcommunist Europe
Oxana Shevel on The Politics of Dual Citizenship in Post-Soviet States
Oxana Shevel on Facts, the Fog of War and Identity 
Follow Oxana on twitter: @oxanashevel
For episode updates - follow on twitter: @jessicagenauer

92. ANALYSIS: Nona Shahnazarian on impacts of the war in Yerevan, Armenia - and the trauma of loss as fallout from conflict

Nona Shahnazarian, Senior Research Fellow at the National Academy of Sciences in Yerevan, Armenia, comments on the impact of the war on Yerevan, including an influx of Russian citizens to Yerevan post-24-Feb, and discusses the trauma of loss, how the effects of conflict reverberate beyond the conflict itself. 
"trauma is not only a one-time event but also a process... it's deeply traumatic to be frustrated by the futility of trying to formulate acceptable reasons for the events that exploded [one's] life" 
Nona Shahnazarian with Jelami Sukhashvili and Zhala Banu on the Georgian-Ossettian and Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts
Nona Shahnazarian on Social Transformations in Post-Soviet Nagorno-Karabakh
(Not directly related to the episode) but - as mentioned - constant updates on the counteroffensive - @mriyareport and Denys Davydov
For episode updates follow on twitter: @jessicagenauer