War in Ukraine: Update from Kyiv

111. ANALYSIS: Una Bergmane on Baltic states’ independence; Soviet echoes in invasion of Ukraine; possiblity of Russian military clash with Baltic states & performative insanity in Russian rhetoric

Una Bergmane, Research Fellow at the Aleksanteri Institute at the University of Helsinki, discusses Baltic states' independence from the Soviet Union; democratization versus empire; viewing Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine through the echoes of Soviet history; the possiblity of a military clash between Russia and the Baltic countries; and the implications of performative insanity in Russian domestic rhetoric. 
“The question of Gorbachev’s relations with the Baltic republics [during the Perestroika years] is not just a story about the relations between the centre and periphery it is also a story about a deep tension at the heart of the Perestroika project, the tension between democratisation and the preservation of empire.” 
During the Soviet period "Russian-speakers who arrived in Estonia and Latvia from other Soviet republics were not encouraged by the Soviet state to learn the local languages or to integrate themselves in Latvian or Estonian societies. They were encouraged to claim the privileges afforded to Russian speakers in the Soviet Union... This created the sense in the Baltic countries that... this imperial bond with Moscow has to be cut... as an existential imperative... There was this urge to reaffirm other identities other than the Soviet identity."
When it comes to Ukraine "everybody in the Baltic countries understands that it could have been us... if something had happened a little bit differently in the 1990s... we would face the same choice as the Ukrainians do now... whether to live in the Russian zone of influence... which is a life in the zone of influence of Putin's regime... or face a war of agression." 
Una Bergmane: More about The Politics of Uncertainty: The US, the Baltic States and the Collapse of the Soviet Union
Una Bergmane on Fading Russian Influence in the Baltic States
Una Bergmane on International Reactions to the Soviet Use of Force in the Baltic Republics in 1991
Una Bergmane on twitter: @unabergmane
Jessica Genauer on twitter: @jessicagenauer
More about the host: Jessica Genauer 

110. ANALYSIS: Collin Koh on maritime security concerns in SEA - China / India maritime power; lessons learnt from maritime conflict in Ukraine war; and likelihood of a clash between China & Taiwan

Collin Koh, Research Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technology University, on maritime security concerns in South East Asia; tensions in the South China Sea; China's build-up of maritime forces; Singapore's security concerns; India's maritime power - as well as lessons learnt from the use of maritime force in the war in Ukraine, and whether Russia's invasion of Ukraine increases or decreases the likelihood that China might attempt to integrate Taiwan by force. 
**If you're primarily interested in lessons learnt from maritime conflcit in the war in Ukraine & whether Russia's invasion increases likelihood of military clash between China and Taiwan - skip to minute 14:17**
"China remains a black box when it comes to its strategic intentions [as a maritime power] on the one hand it talks about diplomacy and economic cooperation but on the other hand we are still seeing China resort to maritime coercion”
"There are some key lessons that can be drawn from the Ukraine war for the South Asian maritime region - first of all - a weaker power can actually hold up against a stronger power… A weaker power can leverage asymmetric strengths to counter a stronger power"
"China is already drawing lessons from this war… as part of China’s military modernisation Russia has clearly been one of the models that they tried to emulate... and it came very likely as a huge shock to China that… in terms of its doctrine, its training and its equipment… the Russian military has grossly underperformed beyond expectations… China has already been conducting reviews of what they saw as lessons from Russia… these changes will take time"
Collin Koh on Maritime Security in Southeast Asia 
Collin Koh on AUKUS and Risks of Submarine Proliferation 
Collin Koh on twitter: @CollinSLKoh
Jessica Genauer on twitter: @jessicagenauer
More about the host: Jessica Genauer 
 

109. ANALYSIS: Mack Tubridy reflects on Russian response to full-scale invasion, mobilization & the impact on Georgia of influx of Russian emigres

Mack Tubridy, Russia researcher, reflects on the response to Russia's invasion within Russia, impact of mobilization & tensions in Georgia following influx of Russian emigres. 
"The priority of the ruling elite in Russia is to maintain regime stability... Russia launching an invasion [against Ukraine] invites threats to regime stability"
"A lot of people [in. Russia] who should in theory understand how Russia's political system works failed to understand... how serious Putin was about his intentions and how the elite class in Russia would be willing to go along with such a disastrous war" 
Mack Tubridy on twitter: @yudbrit
Me on twitter: @jessicagenauer
More about the host: Jessica Genauer 

108. ANALYSIS: Botakoz Kassymbekova on the Soviet project as settler colonialism, legacies, & implications for the war in Ukraine

Botakoz Kassymbekova, Lecturer in Modern History at Universitat Basel, discusses the Soviet Union as a colonial empire: forced resettlement, settler colonialism, humans as territory, the leagacies of colonialism today, and implications for the war in Ukraine.
"The difference between settler colonial empires and extractive overseas empires lies in the relationship to land and labour… for settler colonial empires securing territory is the key purpose… in settler colonial empires in order to secure land for settlement you try to free the territory from the indigenous populations… using two modes… the first one is genocides… the second one is assimilation of local populations … when you assimilate people … they don’t claim the land back… so this very violent process of assimilation took place throughout the Soviet Union”
"What we can see in Ukraine is settler colonialism again in action...The coloniser will never accept you [the colonised] as equal and you will never be allowed to go your own way… you will always have to identify with the coloniser” 
Botakoz Kassymbekova on Humans as Territory: Forced Resettlement and the Making of Sovet Tajikistan 
Botakoz Kassymbekova on Despite Cultures: Early Soviet Rule in Tajikistan 
Botakoz on twitter: @BotakozKassymb1
My twitter: @jessicagenauer
More about the host: Jessica Genauer

107. ANALYSIS: US Army Lieutenant Col. Paul Lushenko on drone warfare, legitimacy and the war in Ukraine

Paul Lushenko, US Army Lieutenant Colonel, PhD student in International Relations and Deputy Director of the Tech Policy Institute at Cornell University, discusses drone warfare, the use of drones in counterterrorism operations, issues of legitimacy, and the use of drones by both Ukraine and Russia in the war in Ukraine. 
More about the Tech Policy Institute at Cornell: A research institute led by a group of social scientists interested in emerging technologies and quantitative methodology
Paul Lushenko, William Maley & Srinjoy Bose (eds) on Drones and Global Order: Implications of Remote Warfare for International Society 
Paul Lushenko on US Presidents' Use of Drone Warfare
Paul Lushenko, Shyam Raman & Sarah Kreps on Multilateralism and Public Support for Drone Strikes 
Follow Paul on twitter: @LushenkoPaul
With recent use of drones by Russia “the intent here for Russia is... to impose punishment on civilians especially as a way to break the will of the Ukrainian leadership… [however] we know from the research… over the long term your results are really ineffective because what you often do is increase and inspire morale even in the face of harsh punishment…” 
For episode updates follow on twitter: @jessicagenauer

106. ANALYSIS: Stephan Fruehling on Russia’s nuclear threats, deterrence, China’s strategic interests and the war in Ukraine

Stephan Fruehling, Professor at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University, discusses nuclear threats and the war in Ukraine: Would Putin use a nuclear weapon? How can Russia be deterred? And how might the threat of nuclear weapons use - shift the calculus for China - as well as for small and middle powers? 
"Nuclear weapons actually aren't really that useful to win on the battefield where you have hugely dispersed forces...they're not going to shift the overall balance. What would shift the overall balance is if Russia could use nuclear coercion to stop the West from supplying weapons to Ukraine. Nuclear use would likely harden Western resolve… but Putin hasn’t been that good at reading Western response in the conflict overall."
Stephan Fruehling and Andrew O'Neill (eds) on Alliances, Nuclear Weapons and Escalation: Managing Deterrence in the 21st Century
For episode updates follow on twitter: @jessicagenauer 

105. DEEP DIVE: Ian Garner on the Battle of Stalingrad, national identity, war narratives, and echoes of these narratives in Putin’s rhetoric on Russia’s war in Ukraine

Ian Garner, historian and translator of Russian wartime propaganda, discusses his forthcoming book Stalingrad Lives! that presents narrative wartime reporting on the Battle of Stalingrad, and considers national identity, wartime narratives, and how this legacy reverberates today in Putin's rhetoric around Russia's current war in Ukraine.
"The overarching narrative of the battle [of Stalingrad]... is a quasi-religious narrative about death and sacrifice and resurrection...it doesn't just say that the sacrifice is regrettable... it says that the sacrifice has to happen... When we think about identity and national myth and narrative...and the way in which Putin draws on World War II... that is the core...sacrifice and death has to happen."  
“What the [contemporary] Russian state understands with its propaganda… is that people will always be drawn to a story… even if that story isn’t real... as so much about the Russian state today isn't real.” 
Find out more about Ian's work: igarner.net
Check out Stalingrad Lives! Stories of combat and survival
Follow Ian on twitter: @irgarner
For episode updates follow on twitter: @jessicagenauer 

104. KYIV UPDATE: Maksym Yali comments on who likely bombed the Kerch Bridge & atmosphere in Kyiv following missile strikes

Maksym Yali, Professor of International Relations at the National Aviation University on Kyiv, comments on why he believes Russia was likely behind the bombing of the bridge over the Kerch Strait that connects Crimea to Russia, and discusses the atmosphere and resolve in Kyiv following missile attacks on civilan targets and infrastructure. 
"Putin does this [the strikes] not to win because it's impossible to win in this way... he does it to intimidate people...but you think you can intimidate us and we are ready to give up? No... This war is existential and all Ukrainian people are not ready to give up... we are ready to win."   
Follow Maksym on twitter: @MaksymYali
For episode updates follow on twitter: @jessicagenauer 

103. ANALYSIS: Denis Kazakiewicz on Belarus, the war in Ukraine, recent joint Russia-Belarus military group, how the war affects the Belarusian population & impacts Lukashenko’s grip on power

Denis Kazakiewicz, data analyst and journalist, discusses Belarus and the war in Ukraine: Aleksandr Lukashenko's relationship with Putin, impacts of the war on the Belarusian population, significance of a recently-formed Belarusian-Russian joint military group, and how the war affects Lukashenko's grip on power.
"With the joint military group, Lukashenko gave one more piece of sovereignty, of Belarus, to Russian control. What does joint military group actually mean? It means that there will be some Russian and Belarusian soldiers intermingled - under Russian command." 
"Lukashenko now is walking a very fine line - with his life in the balance... because if he will not be pro-Putin enough someone else might surface and tell Putin I am more pro-Putin... if he should stick to Putin too much and actually invade with full forces into Ukraine... that might end the rule of Lukashenko very soon... [because] people of Belarus don't want to die for Russian world." 
Follow Denis on twitter: @Den_2042 
For episode updates follow on twitter: @jessicagenauer 

102. ANALYSIS: Azamat Junisbai reflects on Kazakh identity, Russian dominance, the war in Ukraine, and the process of decolonizing one’s own mind

Azamat Junisbai, Professor of Sociology at Pitzer College, reflects on growing up an ethnic Kazakh in a Russian-dominated environment in Kazakhstan, Kazakh identity, the economic fallout of the breakdown of the Soviet Union, the legacy of Russian dominance, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the process of decolonizing one's own mind.  
"As an ethnic Kazakh growing up speaking Russian, I not only lost my language but I began to associate Kazakh with backwardness... how colonized you are in your own mind if you think that about your own culture... and I don't think my story is that unique..."
"I think it's seeing Ukraine struggle against Russian agression... that has awakened this sense of Kazakh identity..."
"There is something about the way for decades Russian people were taught to think about themselves... that the Europeans and the Americans are the colonial powers and Russia is always the bringer of culture and education and to call it a colonizer is crazy... but I think until and unless this is examined by Russians themselves... no-one around Russia is safe..." 
Azamat Junisbai on The Limits of Authoritarian Learning: Deconstructing Kazakhstan's 2022 Coup Attempt 
Azamat Junisbai on Making Sense of Kazakhstan's Political Transition
Follow Azamat on twitter: @azamatistan
For episode updates follow on twitter: @jessicagenauer